The options market is pricing a ±7.9% (±$11.4) move for TGT's 2026-08-19 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, TGT has actually moved ±7.5% on average (biggest: ±22%). That's a 0.95× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — TGT's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -3.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 1.41 | 1.71 | beat | ±6.6% | -3.9% | -1.4% |
| 2026-03-03 | 2.17 | 2.44 | beat | ±7% | +6.7% | +6.2% |
| 2025-11-19 | 1.76 | 1.78 | beat | ±8.3% | -2.8% | -2.2% |
| 2025-08-20 | 2.09 | 2.05 | miss | ±8.1% | -6.3% | -8.8% |
| 2025-05-21 | 1.65 | 1.30 | miss | ±7.8% | -5.2% | -1.2% |
| 2025-03-04 | 2.25 | 2.41 | beat | ±7.4% | -3% | -5.7% |
| 2024-11-20 | 2.29 | 1.85 | miss | ±7.4% | -22% | -18.9% |
| 2024-08-21 | 2.18 | 2.57 | beat | ±6.6% | +10.3% | +9.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
TGT is scheduled to report on 2026-08-19, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±7.9% (±$11.4) for TGT's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, TGT has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, TGT moved ±7.5% on average versus a ±7.9% implied move — a 0.95× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See TGT's positioning too: TGT gamma exposure → · TGT options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
