The options market is pricing a ±3.4% (±$5.17) move for TJX's 2026-08-19 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, TJX has actually moved ±2.6% on average (biggest: ±6.1%). That's a 0.76× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — TJX has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 75% of the time (avg +1.6%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2019-11-19), the options overpriced TJX's move 68% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.82× the implied (mean implied ±3.7%, mean actual ±2.9%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 1.01 | 1.19 | beat | ±3% | +5.7% | +5.5% |
| 2026-02-25 | 1.38 | 1.43 | beat | ±3.5% | -1.2% | +1.3% |
| 2025-11-19 | 1.22 | 1.28 | beat | ±3.1% | +0.2% | +4.7% |
| 2025-08-20 | 1.01 | 1.10 | beat | ±3.7% | +2.7% | +1.5% |
| 2025-05-21 | 0.90 | 0.92 | beat | ±3.5% | -2.9% | -5.2% |
| 2025-02-26 | 1.16 | 1.23 | beat | ±3.9% | +1.8% | -0.8% |
| 2024-11-20 | 1.09 | 1.14 | beat | ±3.9% | +0.2% | +5.6% |
| 2024-08-21 | 0.93 | 0.96 | beat | ±3.6% | +6.1% | +6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
TJX is scheduled to report on 2026-08-19, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±3.4% (±$5.17) for TJX's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, TJX has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, TJX moved ±2.6% on average versus a ±3.4% implied move — a 0.76× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See TJX's positioning too: TJX gamma exposure → · TJX options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
