The options market is pricing a — move for TXN's 2026-10-20 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, TXN has actually moved ±8.7% on average (biggest: ±19.4%). That's a 1.56× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — TXN has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 75% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +1.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 1.91 | 2.14 | beat | ±8% | -3.1% | -7.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | 1.37 | 1.68 | beat | ±7.5% | +19.4% | +13.9% |
| 2026-01-27 | 1.30 | 1.27 | miss | ±6.5% | +9.9% | +14.5% |
| 2025-10-21 | 1.47 | 1.48 | beat | ±5.3% | -5.6% | -7.7% |
| 2025-07-22 | 1.32 | 1.41 | beat | ±4% | -13.3% | -11% |
| 2025-04-23 | 1.06 | 1.28 | beat | ±4.8% | +6.6% | +5.2% |
| 2025-01-23 | 1.19 | 1.30 | beat | ±4% | -7.5% | -7.6% |
| 2024-10-22 | 1.36 | 1.47 | beat | ±4.6% | +4% | +9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
TXN is scheduled to report on 2026-10-20, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show TXN's live.
Over its last 8 reports, TXN has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, TXN moved ±8.7% on average versus a ±5.6% implied move — a 1.56× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 75% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See TXN's positioning too: TXN gamma exposure → · TXN options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
