The options market is pricing a ±7.6% (±$28.58) move for UNH's 2026-10-13 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, UNH has actually moved ±9% on average (biggest: ±22.4%). That's a 1.19× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — UNH has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 75% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -6.9%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2020-01-15), the options overpriced UNH's move 32% of the time — less often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 1.38× the implied (mean implied ±3.6%, mean actual ±5.8%), so on this longer sample the options screen cheap. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 4.87 | 6.38 | beat | ±5.2% | +1.2% | +3.1% |
| 2026-04-21 | 6.48 | 7.23 | beat | ±5% | +7% | +9.6% |
| 2026-01-27 | 2.09 | 2.11 | beat | ±5.1% | -19.6% | -18.8% |
| 2025-10-28 | 2.75 | 2.92 | beat | ±5.3% | +0.5% | -8.8% |
| 2025-07-29 | 4.84 | 4.08 | miss | ±6.9% | -7.5% | -14.6% |
| 2025-04-17 | 7.27 | 7.20 | miss | ±3.4% | -22.4% | -26.8% |
| 2025-01-16 | 6.71 | 6.81 | beat | ±3.8% | -6% | -4.4% |
| 2024-10-15 | 7.02 | 7.15 | beat | ±3.7% | -8.1% | -5.6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
UNH is scheduled to report on 2026-10-13, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±7.6% (±$28.58) for UNH's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, UNH has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, UNH moved ±9% on average versus a ±7.6% implied move — a 1.19× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 75% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See UNH's positioning too: UNH gamma exposure → · UNH options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
