The options market is pricing a — move for UPST's 2027-02-09 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, UPST has actually moved ±11.7% on average (biggest: ±31.8%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — UPST has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -3.7%).
Longer run: across all 20 reports on record (since 2022-02-15), the options overpriced UPST's move 45% of the time — less often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 1.12× the implied (mean implied ±17.2%, mean actual ±22.1%), so on this longer sample the options screen cheap. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 0.60 | 0.40 | miss | ±11.5% | +0.3% | +4.4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 0.58 | 0.18 | miss | ±11.4% | -0.4% | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.39 | -0.07 | miss | ±12.6% | -7.9% | -10.7% |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.47 | 0.17 | miss | ±14.2% | -15% | -17.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.42 | 0.20 | miss | ±14.2% | -9.7% | -15.8% |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.27 | 0.05 | miss | ±15.7% | -18.7% | -23.3% |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.19 | -0.03 | miss | ±17.1% | -9.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-02-11 | -0.05 | -0.02 | beat | ±18.1% | +31.8% | +29% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
UPST is scheduled to report on 2027-02-09, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show UPST's live.
Over its last 8 reports, UPST has beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, UPST moved ±11.7% on average versus a ±14.4% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See UPST's positioning too: UPST gamma exposure → · UPST options flow →
Posting the link is enough — X, Discord and Slack render the live data card automatically.
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
