The options market is pricing a ±13.7% (±$3.7) move for UPST's 2026-08-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, UPST has actually moved ±22.3% on average (biggest: ±46%). That's a 1.63× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — UPST has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 0.39 | -0.07 | miss | ±12.6% | -7.9% | -10.7% |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.47 | 0.17 | miss | ±14.2% | -15% | -17.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.42 | 0.20 | miss | ±14.2% | -9.7% | -15.8% |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.27 | 0.05 | miss | ±15.7% | -18.7% | -23.3% |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.19 | -0.03 | miss | ±17.1% | -9.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-02-11 | -0.05 | -0.02 | beat | ±18.1% | +31.8% | +29% |
| 2024-11-07 | -0.14 | -0.45 | miss | ±16.3% | +46% | +21.5% |
| 2024-08-06 | -0.39 | -0.57 | miss | ±15.8% | +39.5% | +58.5% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
UPST is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±13.7% (±$3.7) for UPST's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, UPST has beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, UPST moved ±22.3% on average versus a ±13.7% implied move — a 1.63× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See UPST's positioning too: UPST gamma exposure → · UPST options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
