The options market is pricing a ±5.1% (±$24.13) move for VRTX's 2026-08-03 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, VRTX has actually moved ±6.2% on average (biggest: ±20.6%). That's a 1.23× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — VRTX has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -3.4%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 4.23 | 3.95 | miss | ±5.2% | -1.3% | +1.2% |
| 2026-02-12 | 5.07 | 4.65 | miss | ±6.1% | +5.7% | +0.9% |
| 2025-11-03 | 4.55 | 4.22 | miss | ±5.8% | -1% | -1.1% |
| 2025-08-04 | 4.24 | 4.00 | miss | ±5.6% | -20.6% | -20.7% |
| 2025-05-05 | 4.22 | 3.55 | miss | ±4% | -10% | -12.2% |
| 2025-02-10 | 3.99 | 3.54 | miss | ±4.3% | -3.1% | — |
| 2024-11-04 | 4.13 | 4.04 | miss | ±4.5% | +5.7% | +6.1% |
| 2024-08-01 | -11.50 | -13.27 | miss | ±3.6% | -2.2% | -7.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
VRTX is scheduled to report on 2026-08-03, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±5.1% (±$24.13) for VRTX's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, VRTX has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, VRTX moved ±6.2% on average versus a ±5.1% implied move — a 1.23× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See VRTX's positioning too: VRTX gamma exposure → · VRTX options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
