The options market is pricing a ±6.2% (±$7.61) move for WMT's 2026-11-19 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, WMT has actually moved ±4.8% on average (biggest: ±9.2%). That's a 0.79× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — WMT has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -2.5%).
Longer run: across all 18 reports on record (since 2022-05-17), the options overpriced WMT's move 39% of the time — less often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 1.31× the implied (mean implied ±4%, mean actual ±5%), so on this longer sample the options screen cheap. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 0.74 | 0.81 | beat | ±4.2% | -9.2% | -8.7% |
| 2026-05-21 | 0.65 | 0.66 | beat | ±3.9% | -7.3% | -9.4% |
| 2026-02-19 | 0.73 | 0.74 | beat | ±4.7% | -1.4% | -0.7% |
| 2025-11-20 | 0.61 | 0.62 | beat | ±4.2% | +6.5% | +8.4% |
| 2025-08-21 | 0.73 | 0.68 | miss | ±4% | -4.5% | -6.3% |
| 2025-05-15 | 0.57 | 0.61 | beat | ±4.1% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| 2025-02-20 | 0.65 | 0.66 | beat | ±4.3% | -6.5% | -7.5% |
| 2024-11-19 | 0.53 | 0.58 | beat | ±4.7% | +3% | +6.4% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
WMT is scheduled to report on 2026-11-19, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±6.2% (±$7.61) for WMT's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, WMT has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, WMT moved ±4.8% on average versus a ±6.2% implied move — a 0.79× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See WMT's positioning too: WMT gamma exposure → · WMT options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
