The options market is pricing a ±1.9% (±$3.04) move for XOM's 2026-07-31 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, XOM has actually moved ±1% on average (biggest: ±2.5%). That's a 0.53× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — XOM has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -0.8%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 1.07 | 1.16 | beat | ±2.2% | -1% | -5% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.68 | 1.71 | beat | ±1.9% | +0.6% | +4% |
| 2025-10-31 | 1.81 | 1.88 | beat | ±1.8% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 2025-08-01 | 1.49 | 1.64 | beat | ±1.8% | -1.8% | -5.1% |
| 2025-05-02 | 1.74 | 1.76 | beat | ±2.2% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| 2025-01-31 | 1.56 | 1.67 | beat | ±2% | -2.5% | -1% |
| 2024-11-01 | 1.91 | 1.92 | beat | ±2.2% | -1.6% | +3.7% |
| 2024-08-02 | 2.04 | 2.14 | beat | ±1.7% | -0.1% | +0.8% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
XOM is scheduled to report on 2026-07-31, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±1.9% (±$3.04) for XOM's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, XOM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, XOM moved ±1% on average versus a ±1.9% implied move — a 0.53× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See XOM's positioning too: XOM gamma exposure → · XOM options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
