The options market is pricing a — move for AFL's 2026-11-03 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AFL has actually moved ±3.3% on average (biggest: ±4.8%). That's a 1.04× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — AFL's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -1%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2020-02-04), the options overpriced AFL's move 32% of the time — less often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 1.24× the implied (mean implied ±2.8%, mean actual ±4%), so on this longer sample the options screen cheap. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 1.77 | 1.75 | miss | ±2.7% | -1.6% | -4.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | 1.80 | 1.75 | miss | ±2.8% | -2.2% | -2.4% |
| 2026-02-04 | 1.71 | 1.57 | miss | ±2.7% | +3.4% | +2.3% |
| 2025-11-04 | 1.80 | 2.49 | beat | ±2.9% | +2.2% | +4.6% |
| 2025-08-05 | 1.71 | 1.78 | beat | ±3.2% | +3.4% | +4.7% |
| 2025-04-30 | 1.68 | 1.66 | miss | ±3.8% | -4.7% | -1.6% |
| 2025-02-05 | 1.63 | 1.56 | miss | ±3.7% | -3.9% | -4.1% |
| 2024-10-30 | 1.70 | 2.16 | beat | ±3.6% | -4.8% | -1.4% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AFL is scheduled to report on 2026-11-03, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show AFL's live.
Over its last 8 reports, AFL has beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AFL moved ±3.3% on average versus a ±3.2% implied move — a 1.04× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AFL's positioning too: AFL gamma exposure → · AFL options flow →
Posting the link is enough — X, Discord and Slack render the live data card automatically.
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
