The options market is pricing a ±13.6% (±$68.49) move for AMAT's 2026-08-13 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AMAT has actually moved ±6.1% on average (biggest: ±14.1%). That's a 0.45× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — AMAT has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -3.8%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2.68 | 2.86 | beat | ±6.9% | -0.9% | -3% |
| 2026-02-12 | 2.19 | 2.38 | beat | ±6.7% | +8.1% | +12.6% |
| 2025-11-13 | 2.11 | 2.17 | beat | ±4.9% | +1.2% | -1.3% |
| 2025-08-14 | 2.34 | 2.48 | beat | ±4.7% | -14.1% | -15.1% |
| 2025-05-15 | 2.31 | 2.39 | beat | ±4.6% | -5.3% | -8.1% |
| 2025-02-13 | 2.28 | 2.38 | beat | ±4.4% | -8.2% | -4.5% |
| 2024-11-14 | 2.18 | 2.32 | beat | ±4.9% | -9.2% | -5.5% |
| 2024-08-15 | 2.01 | 2.12 | beat | ±4.6% | -1.9% | -5.5% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AMAT is scheduled to report on 2026-08-13, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±13.6% (±$68.49) for AMAT's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, AMAT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AMAT moved ±6.1% on average versus a ±13.6% implied move — a 0.45× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AMAT's positioning too: AMAT gamma exposure → · AMAT options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
