The options market is pricing a ±6.1% (±$26.44) move for TSM's 2026-10-15 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, TSM has actually moved ±3.3% on average (biggest: ±9.8%). That's a 0.53× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — TSM has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +1.1%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2019-11-08), the options overpriced TSM's move 58% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.8× the implied (mean implied ±3.6%, mean actual ±3.6%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 3.87 | 4.31 | beat | ±3.5% | -2.3% | +0.4% |
| 2026-04-16 | 3.31 | 3.49 | beat | ±4% | -3.1% | +3.3% |
| 2026-01-15 | 2.82 | 3.14 | beat | ±3.5% | +4.4% | -0.3% |
| 2025-10-16 | 2.59 | 2.92 | beat | ±4.3% | -1.6% | -5.2% |
| 2025-07-17 | 2.37 | 2.47 | beat | ±3.7% | +3.4% | +1.2% |
| 2025-04-17 | 2.03 | 2.12 | beat | ±4.7% | +0% | +4% |
| 2025-01-16 | 2.16 | 2.24 | beat | — | -1.5% | +4.6% |
| 2024-10-17 | 1.74 | 1.94 | beat | ±4.7% | +9.8% | +7.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
TSM is scheduled to report on 2026-10-15, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±6.1% (±$26.44) for TSM's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, TSM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, TSM moved ±3.3% on average versus a ±6.1% implied move — a 0.53× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See TSM's positioning too: TSM gamma exposure → · TSM options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
